2009 MLB Predictions — My hunch, what is yours?

There’s a traditional strategy in professional baseball that everybody knows about and almost every manager follows to a tee. This conventional wisdom is employed during certain hitting match ups, pitching match ups, and game situations – on offense and defense. Call it the “book.” And it’s based on years of baseball games and years of statistics. You either follow it, or you don’t. But be prepared, when you don’t go by the book, you will be chastised – at least a little – for going against traditional beliefs and following a hunch, your hunch.

Aside from game situations, conventional wisdom most often comes into play when making annual predictions for a season. Prognosticators look at stats, health, past performances, talent level, the schedule, the match ups and the etcetera. It all makes perfect sense. I do the same thing. Well, I did up until now. Because today not only will I offer the conventional picks for the 2009 season but I’ll also share my hunches. Yes, the hunches count as my official picks. I’m going with my feelings this year. Conventional wisdom has its place in baseball, just not in every single place.

But that’s just me.

So without further delay, here are my picks (hunches) for the  2009 season. And if for some reason, I pick against your favorite team, don’t throw the book at me. Remember it’s just a hunch. I do believe that anything can happen on any given day at the ballpark.

Remember the Tampa Rays?

National League East: Here’s where conventional wisdom, going with a hunch and just being a smart baseball fan come together. Who is not going to pick the Phillies to repeat as World Series champions? Yes, Cole Hamels is not completely healthy yet, but that team is loaded. Raul Ibanez was a great addition and I expect catcher Carlos Ruiz to improve his game. Conventional wisdom has them winning the division — again. They are the champs, you know. I have them finishing in second place behind the Mets. I have a hunch the Mets are not going to disappear in the final month of the season the way they have the past two years. Here’s why: Frank Rodriguez makes the entire bullpen better, Gary Sheffield makes the bench stronger and age is a factor. I can’t see Sheffield or Carlos Delgado wanting to ride off into the sunset after a solid big league career as losers. And I don’t care how much is he beloved in Queens, if General Manager Omar Minaya doesn’t win, he will be gone. The pressure is on. That’s what the book says or at least it should. That’s what I say, too.

National League West: Nobody loves reading more about Manny Ramirez than I do, but it’s going to take more than personality, dreadlocks and one Hall of Fame caliber hitter to win the division for the Dodgers. Conventional wisdom has the Dodgers repeating as the division champions. That’s just how it goes for a defending division champion. I say they finish in third place behind the Diamondbacks and the Giants. The Diamondbacks and the Giants can flat out pitch and that’s the difference and that’s why they will win. I do have a hunch that I will buy a Manny wig for my father when I go to Dodger Stadium, so that has to count for something.

National League Central: This is the year for the Cubbies. That’s what their fans say and have been saying for the last 100 years. And it’s hard to argue their logic (did I call Cubs fans logical?) because one look at the roster and it immediately says “division champion.” The Cubs are everybody’s pick — just not mine. I think Mr. Everything Mark DeRosa will be missed at Wrigley and the bullpen is talented but not proven. Even Carlos Marmol, the only reliever returning this year from last year, can be unpredictable at times. You want to go with a hunch? Go with the Reds. The team is loaded with talent up and down the lineup and has enough starting pitching – Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto — to beat any team in any series. Veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez just might be a perfect fit behind the plate. He calls a good game and has an easy-going personality to boot.

American League East:  The Yankees won’t make the playoffs. It’s just a hunch. The Red Sox won’t make the playoffs. That’s just a hunch, too. The American League wild card winner will come out of the American League Central which leaves the Rays as the division winner in 2009. Yes, I know it’s hard (and unpopular) to pick against the Yankees or the Red Sox but I’m not ready to anoint them the favorites in the division yet. Tampa can still pitch and as long as they can pitch, they will win games. They might also be the most athletic team in the division. And oh yeah, they are the reigning AL champs. I’m not sure what conventional wisdom says about the AL East, but I say it’s time for the Rays – again.

American League West: Is it right to even think this? Is this real? Did I just pick the Rangers to win the division on a hunch? No, I didn’t. The Angels are back and they will always be the top team until somebody knocks them off. I know John Lackey is out and Kelvim Escobar is a question mark but it’s hard to pick against a team as talented as the Angels. Will they make it out of the first round of the playoffs? They sure will. In fact, if the team comes together the way I think it can, it’s going to feel like 2002 in Anaheim all over again. But if the Angels are plagued with injuries this summer, the Rangers win the division. There, I said it. Call it a hometown hunch.

American League Central: Cleveland wins the division. Minnesota finishes as the runner-up and still makes the playoffs. The Royals and the White Sox are talented enough to win a lot of games and they will do so – out of the division. Need more? Look at the rosters. I just have a feeling on this one. That’s why it’s called a hunch.

National League champion: Reds.

American League champion: Angels

World Series champion: Do the winners of the World Series still go to Disneyland? It won’t be a long drive for the 2009 champions. The Angels play a few miles away from the happiest place on earth.